Risk measurement and pricing of financial positions are based on modeling assumptions, which are common assumptions on the probability distribution of the position's outcomes. We associate a model with a probability measure and investigate model risk by considering a model space. First, we...

This paper evaluates the model risk of models used for forecasting systemic and market risk. Model risk, which is the potential for different models to provide inconsistent outcomes, is shown to be increasing with market uncertainty. During calm periods, the underlying risk forecast models...

We propose a new method for analysing multi-period stress scenarios for portfolio credit risk more systematically than in the current practice of macro stress testing. Our method quantifies the plausibility of scenarios by considering the distance of the stress scenario from an average scenario....

Why should risk management systems account for parameter uncertainty? In order to answer this question, this paper lets an investor in a credit portfolio face non-diversifiable estimation-driven uncertainty about two parameters: probability of default and asset-return correlation. Bayesian...

We study the impact of financing constraints on corporate risk management. Using data on credit scores matched with unique information on firm level commercial insurance purchases, we find that financing constraints lead to higher insurance spending. We adopt a regression discontinuity design...

The determinants of default risk of banks in emerging economies have so far received inadequate attention in the literature. This paper seeks to study the determinants of bank asset quality and profitability using panel data techniques and robust data sets for the period between 1997 and 2009....

This paper analyzes the impact of US firms’ equity risk on bank lending standards and on the macroeconomy for two groups: small and medium-large firms. The results indicate that a higher level of firm risk leads to a higher percentage of banks tightening their lending standards on commercial...

In this paper we aim to provide a holistic understanding of the Initial Margin (IM) models used by Central Counterparties (CCPs) in Europe. In addition to discussing their relevance in terms of CCP risk management and their importance for the functioning of financial markets, we provide an...

The novel partial-use philosophy by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision initiates a paradigm shift for banks, allowing them to permanently partially apply the internal ratings-based approach (IRBA) and not having to fully roll it out across the overall bank anymore. This raises the...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...