Researchers frequently face applied situations where their measurement of a binary outcome suffers from bias. Social desirability bias in survey work is the most widely appreciated circumstance, but the strategic incentives of human beings similarly induce bias in many measures outside of survey...

This study examines how coalition governments affect the size of government, measured by total central government expenditure as a share of GDP. Existing studies suggest that multiparty governments spend more because they have a larger number of parties, greater ideological fragmentation, and...

Purpose The purpose of this study is to assess the ability of a theoretically motivated statistical model to accurately forecast annual, national counts of terror attacks out-of-sample. Methodology/approach Bayesian multi-level models, classification analysis, marginal calibration plots Findings...

Followers of law, politics and business commonly relate stories of individuals who appear to predict an expected self-performance level below what they believe likely. Candidates, attorneys and firms sometimes seem to under-predict their own capacities. Insofar as individuals typically construct...

Do beliefs in the credibility of institutions designed to constrain the state from violating rights affect the behavior of all individuals equally? We argue that the effect depends on how insulated an individual is from rights violations. We test this argument against individual-level data on...