This research presents a comprehensive conceptual model of the dynamics of goal revision over multiple periods. First, based on an integrative literature review, we derive four principles that govern how individuals update their goals over time (monotonicity, diminishing sensitivity, aspiration...

In most OECD countries the gap between rich and poor has widened over the past decades. This paper analyzes whether and to what extent taxes and social transfers have contributed to this trend. Has the redistributive power of different social programs changed over time? The paper contributes to...

We identify a common misconception that expected future changes in short-term interest rates predict corresponding future changes in long-term interest rates. People forecast similar shapes for the paths of short and long rates over the next four quarters. This is a mistake because long rates...

The ratio of long- to short-term dividend prices, “price ratio” (pr), predicts annual market return with an out-of-sample R2 of 19%, subsuming the predictive power of price-dividend ratio (pd). After controlling for pr, pd predicts dividend growth with an out-of-sample R2 of 30%. Our results...