In this paper we present explanation on the phenomenon pointed out in Cook and Manning (2002) on the unusual behaviour of the Dickey-Fuller test in the presence of trend misspecification. It appears that the rejection frequency of the unit root tests in the presence of trend misspecification is...

In this paper we suggest an approach to comparison of models' forecasting performance in unstable environments. Our approach is based on combination of the Cumulated Sum of Squared Forecast Error Differential (CSSFED) suggested earlier in Welch and Goyal (2008) and the Bayesian change point...

One reason donors provide foreign aid is to support their exports to aid-recipient countries. Time series data for Germany suggests an average return of between US$ 1.04 to US$ 1.50 for each US dollar of aid spent by Germany. Although this is well below previous estimates, the value is robust to...