This paper considers testing the hypothesis that errors in a panel data model are weakly cross sectionally dependent, using the exponent of cross-sectional dependence α, introduced recently in Bailey, Kapetanios and Pesaran (2012). It is shown that the implicit null of the CD test depends on...

The presence of cross-sectionally correlated error terms invalidates much inferential theory of panel data models. Recently work by Pesaran (2006) has suggested a method which makes use of cross-sectional averages to provide valid inference for stationary panel regressions with multifactor error...

This paper considers testing the hypothesis that errors in a panel data model are weakly Cross-sectionally dependent (CD), using the exponent of cross-sectional dependence introduced recently in Bailey, Kapetanios and Pesaran (2012). It is shown that the implicit null of the CD test depends on...

The presence of cross-sectionally correlated error terms invalidates much inferential theory of panel data models. Recently work by Pesaran (2006) has suggested a method which makes use of cross-sectional averages to provide valid inference for stationary panel regressions with multifactor error...

A new test for hysteresis based on a nonlinear unobserved components model is proposed. Observed unemployment rates are decomposed into a natural rate component and a cyclical component. Threshold type nonlinearities are introduced by allowing past cyclical unemployment to have a different...

We develop a novel methodology to quantify forecasts based on qualitative survey data. The methodology is generally applicable when quantitative information is available on the realization of the forecasted variable, for example from firm balance sheets. The method can be applied to a wide range...

Using recent results in the measurement error literature, we show that the official U.S. unemployment rate substantially underestimates the true level of unemployment, due to misclassification errors in the labor force status in the Current Population Survey. During the period from January 1996...

We develop a general model for finding the optimal penal strategy based on the behavioral traits of the offenders. We focus on how the discount rate (level of time discounting) affects criminal propensity on the individual level, and how the aggregation of these effects influences criminal...

Marketers often use A/B testing as a tool to compare marketing treatments in a test stage and then deploy the better-performing treatment to the remainder of the consumer population. While these tests have traditionally been analyzed using hypothesis testing, we re-frame them as an explicit...

The computing time for Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms can be prohibitively large for datasets with many observations, especially when the data density for each observation is costly to evaluate. We propose a framework where the likelihood function is estimated from a random subset of...