Using stochastic simulations, this paper analyses the probability distribution of a country's deficit ratio under fixed exchange rates and a variety of monetary policy rules. The purpose is to show how the probability of getting an "excessive deficit", defined as a deficit / GDP ratio in excess...

Macroeconomic Modelling has undergone radical changes in the last few years. There has been considerable innovation in developing robust solution techniques for the new breed of increasingly complex models. Similarly there has been a growing consensus on their long run and dynamic properties, as...

Developing a new and highly innovative theory of economic policy, this book deals with conflicts between strategic actions by public and private agents. It builds on the Lucas critique but also applies the tools introduced by Tinbergen and Theil to dynamic policy games and from there derives a...