In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper,...

In recent years, it has become increasingly common to estimate New Keynesian Phillips curves with a measure of firms' real marginal cost as the real driving variable. It has been argued that this measure is both theoretically and empirically superior to the traditional output gap. In this paper,...

Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment, inflation, and inflation expectation. However, existing literature falls short of endogenizing inflation expectation together with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We estimate a...

The purpose of this study is to examine whether we can identify a Phillips curve fit for the Kingdom of Eswatini as a low middle income Sub-Saharan Africa monarchy using data collected between 1991 and 2016. In our approach we rely on the recently introduced nonlinear autoregressive distributive...

We study the Ramsey optimal monetary policy within the Golosov and Lucas (2007) state-dependent pricing framework. The model provides micro-foundations for a nonlinear Phillips curve: the sensitivity of inflation to activity increases after large shocks due to an endogenous rise in the frequency...

Inflation persistence or ‘inertia’ has important consequences for monetary policy. Inflation which does not get eliminated today tends to persist entailing higher costs in the future. In turn, a monetary regime can exert significant influence on inflation persistence by its credibility and...

In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an efficient level. Under "inflation targeting", forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for policy decisions and these are usually released...

The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...

A.W.H. Phillips is little known to the economics profession today, except at the creator of the Phillips curve. Bollard's engaging biography tells the story of a provincial New Zealander and practical engineer, who emerges as a hero in World War II, and plots a spectacular rise from 3rd class...

We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based...