I present a model that provides a theoretical solution to the Lucas Puzzle using Financial Efficiency, which is a time-varying component of TFP. The model predicts that a financially underdeveloped economy is to benefit from financial integration through FDI capital inflow only if it experiences...

We review the theory of leverage developed in collateral equilibrium models with incomplete markets. We explain how leverage tends to boost asset prices, and create bubbles. We show how leverage can be endogenously determined in equilibrium, and how it depends on volatility. We describe the...

This paper investigates the ability of the adaptive learning approach to replicate the expectations of professional forecasters. For a range of macroeconomic and financial variables, we compare constant and decreasing gain learning models to simple, yet powerful benchmark models. We find that...

We use data on the Chinese market for negotiable certificates of deposit to examine the effect of the 2019 default of Baoshang Bank, which is interpreted as a break in the longstanding implicit guarantee of the Chinese government on wholesale funding debt. The Baoshang default resulted in a...

The demand for cash balances of financial intermediaries that establish contractual liabilities with credit-sensitive customers is characterized. As stated by Merton, the success of the business activities of such firms crucially depends on their credit quality, and hence, they are obliged to...

The paper focused on measuring efficiency of investment strategies and portfolio optimization based on dynamic portfolio formation using the global minimum variance approach in a region of central European countries. The paper analyses DCC GARCH model, which was employed in order to obtain...

We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent claim as a basis for understanding these phenomena. In a...

This paper presents new stylized facts about exchange rates and their relationship with macroeconomic fundamentals. We show that macroeconomic surprises explain a large majority of the variation in nominal exchange rate changes at a quarterly frequency. Using a novel present value decomposition...

Over the past week (from April 3 to April 9), a ‘rebound' was observed in the oil and gas markets that had to do with the expectations of an agreement being reached on oil production cut in the OPEC+ format, alongside hopes for passing negative peaks in coronavirus statistics in the USA. The...

The paper reviews and assesses our understanding of the notion of 'market discipline' in corporate governance. It questions the wholesale appeal to this notion in policy discussion, which fails to provide an account of the underlying mechanisms in terms of theory and empirical analysis....