Managerial behavior differs considerably when managers report quarterly profits versus losses. When they report profits, managers seek to just meet or slightly beat analyst estimates. When they report losses, managers do not attempt to meet or slightly beat analyst estimates. Instead, managers...

Little is known about which forecasts to select when all forecasts are not equally recent. This paper uses security analysts' annual earnings forecasts to examine this issue. The comparative predictive accuracy of the mean and three timely composites is examined, where the three timely...

In this article, we compare several candidate time-series models for the time-series of quarterly accounting earnings per share. One Box-Jenkins model dominates in terms of forecast accuracy. This model is a Box-Jenkins (1,0,0) x (0,1,1) model

We examine the overall and individual analyst performance of 12-month-ahead target price forecasts over the 10-years, 2000-2009. Implied target price-based returns exceed actual returns by an average of 15%, and absolute target price forecast errors average 45%. At the end of the 12-month...

We investigate the implications of recommendation-forecast consistency for the informativeness of stock recommendations and earnings forecasts and the quality of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Stock recommendations and earnings forecasts are often issued simultaneously and evaluated jointly by...