Although the core model of the Dutch Disease makes unambiguous predictions regarding the negative effect of a resource boom on a country's manufacturing exports, the empirical literature that has followed has not clearly identified this effect. I attribute this to the failure of the existing...

I study the firm-level dynamic response of a commodity-exporting economy to global cycles in commodity prices. To do so, I develop a heterogeneous-firms model that endogenizes declines in aggregate productivity through reallocation towards less productive firms. Within a given sector, commodity...

This paper extends the literature on the Dutch disease by showing how natural resources can reduce secondary-sector employment and investment through channels involving labor-market externalities and exchange-rate volatility. We then look at data from Iceland - which is one of few OECD countries...

This paper analyzes the effect of commodity price fluctuations on a commodity-exporting economy. Using Chilean and international copper market data, I find that positive copper price changes resulting from copper-specific demand shocks generate a broad GDP expansion, with no visible decline in...

This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty (CPU) shocks. Using Australia as a case study, an econometric-based CPU index is proposed to reveal that Australia has experienced an unprecedented increase in uncertainty from the commodity market recently. Evidence...

In this paper, I have investigated the out of sample forecast performance for a case study on the determination of the nominal exchange rate for USD vis-à-vis IN¬R under VEC, VAR (in first difference) and Bayesian VAR specification with the help of set of economic theories. The forecast...

Building on Beaudry, Nam and Wang (2011) - hereafter BNW -, we use survey data on consumer sentiment in order to identify the causal effects of confidence shocks on real economic activity in a selection of advanced economies. Starting from a set of closed-economy VAR models, we show that these...

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the...

This paper argues that the Phillips curve relationship is not sufficient to trace back the output gap, because the effect of excess demand is not symmetric across tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. In the non-tradeable sector, excess demand creates excess employment and inflation via the...

Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994-2015 period. In a panel vector error-correction model of house...