This paper introduces a formal method of combining expert and model density forecasts when the sample of past forecasts is unavailable. It works directly with the expert forecast density and endogenously delivers weights for forecast combination, relying on probability rules only. In the...

This paper shows that there are two regularities in foreign exchange markets in advanced countries with flexible regimes. First, real exchange rates are mean-reverting, as implied by the Purchasing Power Parity model. Second, the adjustment takes place via nominal exchange rates. These features...

We run a real exchange rate forecasting "horse race", which highlights that two principles hold. First, forecasts should not replicate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in sample. Second, models should exploit the mean reversion of the real exchange rate over long horizons. Abiding...

The paper presents the problem of identification in parametric models from the algebraic point of view. We argue that it is not just another perspective but the proper one. That is using our approach we can see the very nature of the identification problem, which is slightly different than that...

The share of the private rental housing market in Central and Eastern European countries is low. With a survey data from Poland, I show that strong tenure preferences of households toward owning can be attributed to both economic and psychological factors. Building on these findings, I develop a...

This paper examines the welfare implications of a country joining a currency union as opposed to operating in a flexible exchange rate regime. At the country level, the suboptimal response to domestic and foreign shocks and the inability of setting inflation at the desired level may be offset by...