We estimate a novel text based ideal point model (TV-TBIP) for two main topics central bankers communicate about, namely monetary policy and financial stability. This is used to evaluate the content of speeches based on the ideological position of the speaker. We find that the ECB transitions...

This paper puts forward a Bayesian version of the global vector autoregressive model (B-GVAR) that accommodates international linkages across countries in a system of vec-tor autoregressions. We compare the predictive performance of B-GVAR models for the one- and four-quarter ahead forecast...

We propose a straightforward algorithm to estimate large Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressions with mixture innovation components for each coefficient in the system. The computational burden becomes manageable by approximating the mixture indicators driving the time-variation in...