We apply classical econometric method to characterize the dynamic behavior of the quarter-on-quarter inflation over the period 1997q1-2010q1. In particular, we estimate univariate autoregressive (AR) models for the aggregate consumer price inflation series and as well as for the consumer price...

Most of the emerging European countries, including Republic of Macedonia, are faced with greater or smaller current account deficits, which raise the concern about their sustainability in the long run. This working paper examines the sustainability of the Macedonian current account deficit using...

This paper applies a SVAR model which combines different monetary policy instruments to construct an alternative indicator of monetary policy stance in Macedonia. It employs the approach introduced by Bernanke and Mihov (1998) of isolating monetary policy shocks from the whole set of monetary...

This paper describes the Macedonian Policy Analysis Model (MAKPAM), which is used at the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia (NBRM) for medium term macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. The MAKPAM is a medium scale, New Keynesian gap model that incorporates the key...

This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the ESI within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable summary of the current economic...