We investigate the properties of exchange rate forecasts with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. The key finding is that expectations appear to be biased in our sample. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures....

Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk premium. We find that changes in expected depreciation are quantitatively significant. However we also...

Some countries undergoing exchange-rate-based stabilization and financial liberalization in Latin America, Asia and elsewhere have faced large capital inflows since 1991. Many have tried to sterilize the reserve inflows. Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart argue essentially that sterilization is more...

Continental trade blocs are emerging in many parts of the world almost in tandem. If trade blocs are required to satisfy the McMillan criterion of not lowering trade volume with outside countries, they have to engage in a dramatic reduction of trade barriers against non-member countries. That...