The objective of this paper is to provide a practical tool for stock price evaluation and forecasting under Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Three existing models are reviewed; these models include: Mordern Portfolio Theory, Black-Scholes, and Jarrow-Rudd models. It was found that these models may not...

[Update: Within four weeks of the original publication of this research report, Risk Magazine reported in its 28th February 2012 issue story titled 'Goodbye VaR? Basel to Consider Other Risk Metrics': "A review of trading book capital rules, due to be launched in March by the Basel Committee on...

We present some new asymptotic results for functionals of higher order differences of Brownian semi-stationary processes. In an earlier work we have derived a similar asymptotic theory for first order differences. However, the central limit theorems were valid only for certain values of the...

Originating from cooperative game theory, Shapley values have become one of the most widely used measures for variable importance in applied Machine Learning. However, the statistical understanding of Shapley values is still limited. In this paper, we take a nonparametric (or smoothing)...

This paper introduces a new class of stochastic volatility models which allows for stochastic volatility of volatility (SVV): Volatility modulated non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (VMOU) processes. Various probabilistic properties of (integrated) VMOU processes are presented. Further we study the...

We provide a tutorial that illuminates the aspects which need to be considered when fitting neural network regression models to claims frequency data in insurance. We discuss feature pre-processing, choice of loss function, choice of neural network architecture, class imbalance problem, balance...

We provide a test for the specification of a structural model without identifying assumptions. We show the equivalence of several natural formulations of correct specification, which we take as our null hypothesis. From a natural empirical version of the latter, we derive a Kolmogorov-Smirnov...

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to show that closure-based classification and regression models provide both high accuracy and interpretability. Design/methodology/approach - Pattern structures allow one to approach the knowledge extraction problem in case of partially ordered...

We define a non-parametric estimator of the integrated leverage effect as the covariance between the logarithmic asset price and its volatility. In Curato and Sanfelici (2015), a consistent estimator of the leverage effect has been introduced through a pre-estimate of the Fourier coefficients of...