This paper extends the Multiplicative Error Model (MEM) by adding the location parameter. The minimum of a sample is proved to be a consistent estimator for this parameter, and used to truncate the data set. If the truncated data set contains none or a trivial proportion of zeroes, the...

This paper examines the impact of global supply chain disruptions and the associated uncertainty on economic activity and inflation. We employ a Bayesian VAR model with the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) and estimated uncertainty to analyze their effects during the pandemic. Our...