Geography, economic size, or common history, help predicting signed regional trade agreements (RTAs). However, not all signed RTAs are "natural" according to economic determinants. En-dogeneity and general equilibrium effects of RTAS are the two mechanisms addressed in this paper. We estimate...

This volume was prepared by Inga Heiland while she was working at the Ifo Institute. It was completed in July 2016 and accepted as a doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich. It comprises five chapters addressing one or more aspects of international trade and...

This paper explores the economic impacts of preferential trade agreements, conditional on their level of ambition. We cluster 278 agreements, encompassing 910 provisions over 18 policy areas and estimate the trade elasticity for the different clusters. We then use these elasticities in a series...

Gravity equations have been used for more than 50 years to estimate ex post the partial effects of trade costs on international trade flows, and the well-known - and traditionally presumed exogenous - "trade-cost elasticity" plays a central role in computing general equilibrium trade-flow and...

Using a novel common econometric specification, we examine the measurement of three important effects in international trade that historically have been addressed largely separately: the (partial) effects on trade of economic integration agreements, national borders, and bilateral distance....

International trade in manufacturing goods has risen strongly over the past decades, contributing to the expansion of global value chains (GVCs). This paper studies how two factors contributed to this rise since 1970: (i) declining "border effects" that are arguably related to the ICT revolution...

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs)....

Using a novel common econometric specification, we examine the measurement of three important effects in international trade that historically have been addressed largely separately: the (partial) effects on trade of economic integration agreements, national borders, and bilateral distance....

Developing countries have greatly benefited from globalization, coinciding with economic growth and structural transformation. The standard trade theory postulates that trade openness contributes to poverty alleviation directly by changing factor proportions of production and indirectly through...

For a long time globalization could be seen everywhere but in gravity estimates. We offer evidence how globalization affects manufacturing trade over the period 1986-2006 and show that, on average, the effect of distance has fallen whereas the effects of proximity and regional trade agreements...