In this paper, we propose a new framework to coherently produce probabilistic mortality forecasts by exploiting techniques in seasonal time-series models, extreme value theory (EVT), and hierarchical forecast reconciliation. We are amongst the first to model and analyze U.S. monthly death counts...

We introduce the function principal component regression (FPCR) forecasting method to model and forecast age-specific survival functions observed over time. The age distribution of survival functions is an example of constrained data whose values lie within a unit interval. Because of the...