This paper identifies the natural interest rate for the Macedonian economy using quarterly data for 2001Q4-2019Q3. To this end, the estimation is made by using different types of models, such as the Holston, Laubach, and Williams model and the full-fledged country-specific structural MAKPAM...

We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...

Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

About half of professional forecasters report that they use the natural rate of unemployment (u*) to forecast. I show that forecasters' reported use of and estimates of u* are informative about their expectations-formation process, including their use of a Phillips curve. Those who report not...

In this article, the issue of the monetary independence problem in view of the Romania's European Monetary Union accession is investigated empirically. It is frequently argued that for such a country, the main cost of participation in a currency area is the loss of monetary policy independence....

We assess the impact of large-scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing (QE), conducted by Sveriges Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and...

Badinger and Schiman (2023) use a narrative high-frequency analysis of news and financial markets to develop a small set of restrictions on the structural shocks of a VAR of the Euro area. Their approach does not uniquely identify a structural representation, so their results are based on the...

Central banks communication has lately become an important tool to guide expectations and its impact on the economy has been acknowledged by the literature. Nowadays central banks speeches face an increasing variety of topics, which are not discriminated by text analysis. In this paper we...