The lower bound on interest rates has restricted the impact of conventional monetary policies over recent years and could continue to do so in the near future, with the decline in natural real rates not predicted to reverse any time soon. A binding lower bound on interest rates has consequences...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

We estimate a regime-switching DSGE model with a banking sector to explain incomplete and asymmetric interest rate pass-through, especially in the presence of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint. The model is estimated using Bayesian techniques on US data between 1985 and 2016. The...

Automatic stabilisers are fiscal policy's first line of defence in the face of adverse economic shocks. Automatic stabilisers capture fiscal policy's automatic countercyclical response to the state of the business cycle, and are determined by factors like the progressivity of the tax system, the...

Recent experience with interest rates hitting the effective lower bound and agents facing binding borrowing constraints has emphasised the importance of understanding the behaviour of an economy in which some variables may be restricted at times. The extended path algorithm is a commonly used...

In this paper I derive the matrix chain rules for solving a second and a third-order approximation to a DSGE model that allow the use of a recursive Sylvester equation solution method. In particular I use the solution algorithms of Kamenik (2005) and Martin & Van Loan (2006) to solve the...

I describe a new method for imposing zero restrictions (both short and long-run) in combination with conventional sign-restrictions. In particular I extend the Rubio-Ram rez et al. (2010) algorithm for applying short and long-run restrictions for exactly identified models to models that are...

This paper constructs an analytically tractable model of endogenous innovation with a special focus on the effects of barriers to entry, namely patents. Conventional models of endogenous growth rely on the existence and enforcement of intellectual property rights with patents. Those legal rights...