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On time series modeling of Nigeria's external reserves

Doguwa, Sani I.; Alade, Sarah O. - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 6 (2015) 1, pp. 1-28

autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with an exogenous input (SARIMA …-X) and an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) processes. The performances of the proposed models are compared with the … existing model obtained using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) process using the pseudo …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473622

Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning

Marcet, Albert; Nicolini, Juan Pablo - 1998

This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to account for the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the last decade. We study a standard monetary model where the fully rational expectations assumption is replaced by a formal definition of quasi-rational learning. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014053167

Inflation Targeting Under Potential Output Uncertainty

Gaiduch, Victor; Hunt, Benjamin F. - 2002

In this paper, measures of the uncertainty surrounding estimates of New Zealand's potential output are used to consider whether the output gap is a useful concept for the monetary authority to base policy actions on. The analysis relies on stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112842

Efficient Simple Policy Rules and the Implications of Potential Output Uncertainty

Hunt, Benjamin F.; Drew, Aaron - 2003

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy's level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112608

The Evasive Predictive Ability of Core Inflation

Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2016

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March 2015. Our results indicate that sizable predictability...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013001948

Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy

Gibbs, Christopher - 2016

This paper introduces the concept of a Forecast Combination Equilibrium to model boundedly rational agents who combine a menu of different forecasts using insights from the forecasting literature to mimic the behavior of actual forecasters. The equilibrium concept is consistent with rational...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013005127

A Monetary Base Analysis and Control Model

Gursel, Haluk Ferden - 2019

This report is one of the first studies discussing monetary base analysis and control model, a concept even today is alive and more developed by, for example, by IMF to use its analysis. The study presents monetary base approach to control of money flows and the links between monetary base,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892419

The 'Puzzle' of Vanishing Inflation

Carr, Douglas - 2021

Low and unresponsive inflation has been termed a “puzzle.”. The paper combines a monetary model and a growth model to explain low inflation and project its continued decline.The monetary model forecast in 2016 central banks would fail to reach 2% targets, which has been true. The model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013242574

Concept and Mathematics of Islamic Financial Engineering

Aydin, Nadi Serhan - 2012

We argue that Islamic principles, in particular the avoidance of ribā and gharar should be applied with respect to real economic value rather than to monetary value in terms of conventional currency. In order to reconcile monetary value with economic value, we propose a reference currency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102582

Announced Regime Switch : Optimal Policy for Transition Period

Brázdik, František - 2010

The novelty of this work is the presentation of the theoretical framework that allows to model announced change of the monetary regime. I analyze behavior of small open economy that announced to adopt a monetary policy regime with focus on offsetting nominal exchange rate changes in given number...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149098