The exact linear dependency among age, period and birth cohort makes it impossible to recover the true parameters of Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. We then propose to extract reliable information from APC models via the Shapley decomposition, a model-agnostic procedure from game theory that...

Chapter 1. Prologue -- Chapter 2. Trading: Humans Are Heterogeneous Animals -- Chapter 3. Forecasting: Humans Are Prone-To-Predicting Animals -- Chapter 4. Aggregating: Humans Are Social Animals -- Chapter 5. Innovating: Humans Are Ingenious Animals -- Chapter 6. Epilogue.

No, they are not; at least not in the UK. By examining GDP dynamics we find that, over a time-span of two decades, an easy-to-perform adaptive expectations model systematically outperforms other standard predictors in terms of squared forecasting errors. This should reduce model uncertainty and...

We develop a general theoretical model to compare two different policymakers both facing tax evasion. Policymakers differs in that they aim to maximize either the fiscal revenues (T ) as in a social-democracy as, e.g., Sweden, or the GDP as in a capitalistic country as, e.g., the USA. Both...

The Tax-to-GDP ratio is an important tool for both economists and policymakers. Despite its pivotal role, this indicator is measured and analyzed without due attention to the potential biases stemming from the so called non-observed economy. This note aims at filling this gap, pointing out the...

The Tax-to-GDP ratio is an important tool for both economists and policymakers. Despite its pivotal role, this indicator is measured and analyzed without due attention to the potential biases stemming from the so called non-observed economy. This note aims at filling this gap, pointing out the...

This paper examines the emergence of economic clubs and its coherence with the European commitments by analysing business cycle comovements in six industrialised economies, which are pooled into four different clusters. Starting from turning points chronologies, a binary measure of association...