Macroeconomic Theory and History -- Basic Macroeconomic Model -- Exogenous and Endogenous Fluctuations -- Exogenous and Endogenous Growth -- Asset Prices and Bubbles -- Credit Cycle -- Cash Payment and Inflation -- Complete and Incomplete Markets -- Liquidity Constraints -- Endogenously...

While financial crises tend to be preceded by economic booms, most booms do not end with crises. Crises typically occur when booms are interrupted by persistent slowdowns in productivity growth. I develop a model in which risk of crisis emerges endogenously during boom because of increased...

We examine the relationship of banking crises with economic growth and recessions. Our data cover 21 economies from around the world, most from 1870 to 2009 with the rest starting in 1901 or earlier. The data include capital investment and human capital formation. We have two major findings....

I empirically analyze the dynamics of business investment following normal recessions (declines in business investment that are not associated with banking crises) and banking crises. Using a panel of 16 advanced economies, I find evidence for significant non-linear trend reversion or...