In this paper, we examine the temporal stability of the evidence for two commodity futures pricing theories. We investigate whether the forecast power of commodity futures can be attributed to the extent to which they exhibit seasonality and we also consider whether there are time varying...

In this paper we introduce a new two-factor commodity term structure model for which inventories serve as a second state variable. We derive a closed-form formula for futures prices and empirically analyze the model's properties. Besides being economically appealing, our model also outperforms...

We investigate the impact of product market competition on firms' systematic risk. Using a measure of total product market similarity, we document a strong negative link between market power and market betas. There is a more than threefold increase in the effect during the most recent...

We study the empirical performance of the classical minimum-variance hedging strategy, comparing several econometric models for estimating hedge ratios of crude oil, gasoline and heating oil crack spreads. Given the great variability and large jumps in both spot and futures prices, great care is...

We contribute to the literature by analyzing forecast combination methods in the context of machine learning to predict equity returns. Whilst individual models lack robustness, forecast combinations display stability and are able to produce improved results with Sharpe ratios up to 3.16. We use...

We investigate the impact of product market competition on firms’ systematic risk. Using a measure of total product market similarity, we document a strong negative link between market power and market betas. There is a more than threefold increase in the effect during the most recent...