The paper describes how to measure the fiscal multiplier using budget statements on planned government spending in the current and following years alongside the data on actual outcomes. The multiplier effects can be decomposed to distinguish the effects of ‘policy reactions' versus ‘policy...

This paper highlights the importance of accounting for the protracted time frame over which fiscal policy is implemented, and over which its e®ects are felt, when estimating fiscal multipliers. It distinguishes published government tax/spending plans from subsequent outcomes, and it exploits...

We estimate a model that allows for dynamic and interdependent responses of morbidity in different local areas to economic conditions at the local and national level, with statistical selection of optimal local area. We apply this approach to quarterly British data on chronic health conditions...

We estimate a model that allows for dynamic and interdependent responses of morbidity in different local areas to economic conditions at the local and national level, with statistical selection of optimal local area. We apply this approach to quarterly British data on chronic health conditions...