This paper describes a method for calculating daily real-time estimates of the current state of the U.S. economy. The estimates are computed from data on scheduled U.S. macroeconomic announcements using an econometric model that allows for variable reporting lags, temporal aggregation, and other...

In a market with symmetric information about fundamentals, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and FX markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of...

This paper presents a new numerical method for solving stochastic general equilibrium models with dynamic portfolio choice over many financial assets. The method can be applied to models where there are heterogeneous agents, time-varying investment opportunity sets, and incomplete asset markets....

We examine how medium-term movements in real exchange rates and GDP vary with international financial conditions. For this purpose, we study the international transmission of productivity shocks across a variety of IRBC models that incorporate different assumptions about the persistence of...

Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...

Most studies of the expectations theory of the term structure reject the model. However, the significance of the rejections depend strongly upon the form of the test. In this paper, we use the pattern of rejection across maturities to back out the implied behavior of time-varying risk premia...

This paper studies the behavior of international capital flows driven by the portfolio reallocation decisions of international investors; so-called hot money. I develop an open economy model with endowment and preference shocks that can account for the empirical behavior of real exchange rates,...

I use Forex trading data to study how risks associated with the lack of liquidity contribute to the dynamics of 17 spot exchange rates through their time-varying contributions to risk premia. I find that liquidity risk matters. All the foreign exchange risk premia compensate investors for...