derive individual uncertainty measures along with individual point- and density-based measures of disagreement. We also … explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents' forecast performance and … forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents' uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is …

This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and … discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation. Disagreement varies over time and is strongly counter …-cyclical. Disagreement is positively correlated with general (economic) uncertainty. Aggregate supply shocks drive disagreement about the …

Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully … aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce … dispersed information in a New Keynesian model, where as a result, inflation expectations differ between the private sector and …