Interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP), the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates, emerges as a strong predictor of Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by other...

Measured as yield spreads against AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium for agency MBS averaged 47 basis points between 1995 and 2021, about half of the long-term-Treasury convenience premium. Both the MBS convenience premium and the issuance amount vary negatively with the mortgage rate,...

We find that interest rate variance risk premium (IRVRP) - the difference between implied and realized variances of interest rates - is a strong predictor of U.S. Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up to six months. IRVRP is not subsumed by...

Investors can trade individual agency mortgage-backed securities as specified pools (SPs), or trade them through TBA forward contracts. Sellers in the TBA market deliver the cheapest possible pool that fulfills the contracts, so they are traded on a cheapest to deliver basis. More valuable...

When two investors agree to disagree on market prospects and bet against each other, both expect to profit from their trades. Hence, an increase in disagreement leads to higher perceived trading profits and lower marginal utilities for both investors, so disagreement betas can affect...