This paper examine differences between risk-neutral and objective probability densities of future interest rates. The identification and quantification of these differences are important when risk-neutral densities (RNDs), such as option-implied RNDs, are used as indicators of actual beliefs of...

We examine the structural stability of Gaussian shadow rate term structure models of Treasury yields over a period that includes the time during which the U.S. policy rate was at its effective lower bound. After a conceptual discussion of several potential sources of a structural break in the...

This paper illustrates how a parsimonious macro-finance model can be exploited to investigate the frequency-domain properties of debt service implied by various financing strategies. This original approach is valuable to public debt managers seeking to assess the fiscal-hedging properties of the...

We give an overview of a broad class of models designed to capture stochastic volatility in financial markets, with illustrations of the scope of application of these models to practical finance problems. In a broad sense, this model class includes GARCH, but we focus on a narrower set of...

We show that robustness against model misspecification can account for the forward premium puzzle through a combination of an exchange rate model and a robustness model under structured uncertainty. In equilibrium, optimizing agents, who hold no misperception about the model, distort their...

This paper compares the interpolation abilities of nonparametric and parametric term structure models which are widely used by the main Central Banks of the world. Seeking the combination of smoothness and flexibility, a new Nelson-Siegel class model is introduced. It emerges as an extension of...

This paper presents a theoretical model of the term structure of interest rates based on the monetary policy decision-making process at modern central banks. Evaluations of explicit expressions for the spot and forward rate curve render several important results: (i) Spot and forward rates are...

There are concerns that climate-related physical and political risks are not yet properly reflected in asset prices. To address these concerns, we develop a dynamic asset pricing framework with rare disasters related to climate change. The novelty of this paper lies in linking carbon emissions...

In a New-Keynesian model subject to the zero lower bound (ZLB), constrained monetary policy endogenously results in time-varying equity risk premia and equity-bond market correlations. Liquidity traps at the ZLB are characterized by negatively skewed and increasingly uncertain consumption...

After Lehman default (credit crisis 2007), practitioners considered the default risk as a major risk. The regulators pushed the industry to use collateral in order to reduce the risk. In this new world, we want to see how this new considerations affect the theory related to the Partial...