I analyze time series momentum along the Treasury term structure. Past bond returns predict future returns both due to autocorrelation in bond risk premia and because unexpected bond return shocks increase the premium. Yield curve momentum is primarily due to autocorrelation in yield changes...

I analyze the survival probabilities of different types of agents in a general equilibrium model with disagreement over idiosyncratic uncertainties. I find that such biases create a separation between individual and group level survival: even when the survival probability of a single irrational...

We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning short-term interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict...

A convenience yield represents a difference between yield on a safe bond and yield on a synthetic safe bond, constructed by combining a risky bond with a CDS contract. We explain the shapes of eurozone sovereign convenience curves using a model in which arbitrageurs face higher funding costs on...

We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict...

We compare risk sharing in response to demand and supply shocks in four types of currency unions: segmented markets; a banking union; a capital market union; and complete financial markets. We show that a banking union is efficient at sharing all domestic demand shocks (deleveraging, fiscal...

We compare risk sharing in response to demand and supply shocks in four types of currency unions: segmented markets; a banking union; a capital market union; and complete financial markets. We show that a banking union is efficient at sharing all domestic demand shocks (deleveraging, fiscal...

We propose a model in which sticky expectations concerning shortterm interest rates generate joint predictability patterns in bond and currency markets. Using our calibrated model, we quantify the effect of this channel and find that it largely explains why short rates and yield spreads predict...