This study proposes a generalized partial adjustment model of dividends in which managers set target dividends based on adaptively-formed earnings prospects. We show that firms adjust dividends to their target payouts much faster than previously documented. When managers form future earnings...

This study investigates how uncertainty affects firms' target capital structure using a panel data set of U.S. public manufacturers between 2003 and 2018 and finds that high-uncertainty firms have 10.1 (8.1) percentage points lower mean book (market) targets than low-uncertainty firms. This...

This study investigates the predictability of stock market returns using a novel corporate investment measure that captures the lumpiness of firm-level investment. We find that the proportion of firms with investment spikes ("spike") is a strong predictor of excess stock returns. Specifically,...