We replicate three bank failure models (Martin (1977), Cole and White (2012), and DeYoung and Torna (2013)) and introduce a new predictive model along with several evaluation methods to compare their out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We find that the models are highly accurate individually, and...

Using a large panel of US banks over the period 2008-2013, this paper proposes an early warning framework to identify bank heading to bankruptcy. We conduct a comparative analysis based on both Canonical Discriminant Analysis and Logit models to examine and to determine the most accurate one....

We compare the out-of-sample accuracy of three methodologies—the time-varying hazard model of Shumway (2001), the static probit model used by Cole and Gunther (1998), and a static logistic regression model similar to Cole and White (2012)—in forecasting U.S. bank failures. When we limit all...

The recent series of banking crises in the United States and in the Eurozone has resulted in numerous bank failures. In this paper, an agent-based model is employed to test for factors that determine bank viability in times of distress, focusing mainly on the endogenous risk of financial...

We propose a model that links the conditional probability of bank failure to insolvency and liquidity risks, and show that liquidity risk affects bank failures through systematic and idiosyncratic channels. Empirical results based on U.S. bank data between 1985 and 2011 show that this model...

We characterize the optimal banking union with endogenous participation in a two-country economy in which domestic bank failures may be contemporaneous to sovereign crises, giving rise to risk-sharing motives to mutualize the funding of bailouts. Bank bail-ins create disruption costs that are...

We show that loan origination time is key for bank lending standards, cycles, defaults and failures. We exploit the credit register from Spain, with the time of a loan application and its granting. When VIX is lower (booms), banks shorten loan origination time, especially to riskier firms. Bank...

This paper characterizes the optimal banking union with endogenous participation in a two-country economy in which domestic bank failures may be contemporaneous to sovereign crises, giving rise to risk-sharing motives to mutualize bail-out funding. Raising public funds to conduct bail-outs...

I provide simulation evidence that the complex systems framework is well-suited for explainingthe historical distribution of U.S. commercial bank failure cascades. I use the complex systemsframework to test a model of the efficacy of microprudential (bank-level) ratio-based capitaladequacy...

This paper contributes to the debate on liquidity in resolution by providing a quantitative assessment of liquidity gaps of banks in resolution in the euro area. It estimates possible ranges of liquidity gaps for significant banks under different assumptions and scenarios. The findings suggest...