We extend Jurado et al. (2015)'s forecast-error-based uncertainty measure to the international context, and construct a new measure of global uncertainty. We examine dynamic causal effects among global uncertainty and other global macroeconomic variables, and provide two important applications...

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country affects other countries' GDP. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects as a shock is transmitted through output fluctuations and introduces a new specification strategy that reduces the number of...

This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output fluctuations. The paper introduces a new specification...