In a highly influential paper, Baron and Kenny (1986) proposed a statistical procedure to conduct a causal mediation analysis and identify possible causal mechanisms. This procedure has been widely used across many branches of the social and medical sciences and especially in psychology and...

Ecological inference is a statistical problem where aggregate-level data are used to make inferences about individual-level behavior. In this article, we conduct a theoretical and empirical study of Bayesian and likelihood inference for 2 × 2 ecological tables by applying the general...

We attempt to clarify, and show how to avoid, several fallacies of causal inference in experimental and observational studies. These fallacies concern hypothesis tests for covariate balance between the treated and control groups, and the consequences of using randomization, blocking before...