We study variations in the risk-neutral distributions of the exchange rates in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru due to interventions implemented by these countries. For this purpose, we first estimate the risk-neutral densities of the exchange rates based on derivatives market data, for...

Our interest is to understand the costs of deflation. Thus, we explore the extent to which deflationary risks have surged in a selected set of European economies. To that end, we develop a simple consumption-based asset pricing model and, based on it, we estimate a(n) (in)deflation risk premium....

We are seeking to understand the costs of deflation. To that end, we assess the extent to which deflationary risks have surged in a selected group of European economies. Specifically, we develop a simple consumption-based asset pricing model and, based on it, we estimate a(n) (in)deflation risk...

There is an ongoing debate about austerity and stimulus in the Euro zone. Moreover, given the fiscal and financial problems in the region, a default has appeared likely at times. In this context, this paper develops a dynamic stochastic quantitative model of sovereign default with fiscal policy,...

Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation...