In this paper, we derive optimal investment policies at the industry portfolio level under the stochastic investment opportunities of dynamic and asymmetric properties. For this purpose, we present a new model of intertemporal dynamic portfolio choice as well as non-myopic optimal consumption...

We estimate term structures of default probabilities for private firms using data consisting of 1,759 default events from 29,894 firms between 1999 and 2014. Each firm's default likelihood is characterized by a forward intensity model employing macro risk factors and firm-specific attributes. As...

This paper develops dynamic measures of the systemic risk of the financial sector as a whole. It defines systemic risk as the conditional probability of failure of a sufficiently large fraction of the total population of financial institutions. This definition recognizes that the cause of...