We propose a general framework that can be used to analyse the mortality experience of a large portfolio of lives. The objective of the framework is to provide a firm evidence base to support the setting of future mortality assumptions for the portfolio as a whole or subgroup-by-subgroup. The...

We use a case study of a pension plan wishing to hedge the longevity risk in its pension liabilities at a future date. The plan has the choice of using either a customized hedge or an index hedge, with the degree of hedge effectiveness being closely related to the correlation between the value...

This study sets out a framework to evaluate the goodness of fit of stochastic mortality models and applies it to six different models estimated using English & Welsh male mortality data. The methodology exploits the structure of each model to obtain various residual series that are predicted to...

This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multi-period-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The models considered are:...

We use a case study of a pension plan wishing to hedge the longevity risk in its pension liabilities at a future date. The plan has the choice of using either a customised hedge or an index hedge, with the degree of hedge effectiveness being closely related to the correlation between the value...

The purpose of this paper is to identify a workhorse mortality model for the adult age range (i.e., excluding the accident hump and younger ages). It applies the “general procedure” (GP) of Hunt and Blake (2014) to identify an age-period model that fits the data well before adding in a...

Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their aggregate longevity risk. There are also wider...

Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their systematic longevity risk. Longevity bonds will...