We modelled electricity prices by fractionally integrated processes finding significant relations between zonal spot prices and exogenous variables. Day-ahead forecasts have been computed thanks to forecasted volumes and a scenario analysis

In this work, we explore the impact that intra-daily information could have on explaining and forecasting the conditional volatility of daily electricity returns. Returns are computed on Italian spot prices. The basic model considers an autoregressive structure on the conditional mean, daily...

This paper presents the estimation methods of the Bayesian Graphical Vector Auto-regression with and without innovations such as external regressors (BG-VARX) and Bayesian Graphical Systems Equation Modelling (BG-SEM), which are developed to examine risk network structures embedded in...