How do microeconomic frictions and microeconomic heterogeneity affect macroeconomic dynamics? We revisit the recent claim in the literature that nonconvex capital adjustment costs do not matter for aggregate dynamics. We argue that the neutrality of fixed adjustment frictions in general...

We formalise and present an innovative general approach for developing complex system models from survey data by applying Bayesian Networks. The challenges and approaches to converting survey data into usable probability forms are explained and a general approach for integrating expert knowledge...

This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality...

We propose a parsimonious quantile regression framework to learn the dynamic tail behaviors of financial asset returns. Our model captures well both the time-varying characteristic and the asymmetrical heavy-tail property of financial time series. It combines the merits of a popular sequential...