Using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test to verify the existence of a unit root in an autoregressive process often requires the correctly specified intercept, since the test statistics can be distinctive under different model specifications and lead to contradictory results at times. In this...

Predictive regressions are widely used in empirical economics and finance to investigate the Granger causality test, linear rational expectations hypothesis test, and market efficiency hypothesis. This paper develops a new unified predictability test regardless of the properties of predictors....

We document statistically significant relations between fund beta and past market returns that affect standard estimates of mutual fund market timing. Our evidence of “artificial” market timing emerges when we estimate market timing regressions across time periods that span time variation in...

We show that two prominent bootstrap tests for fund skill have distorted test sizes because many funds have short return records and skewed return residuals, and they lack test power to detect skilled funds when a substantial number of unskilled funds are present. We develop the theory for a...