Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...

This paper evaluates the role that sectoral comovement plays in the propagation of monetary policy shocks on the stock market. In doing so, we introduce a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model with heterogeneous regime-switching factor loadings, denoted as MS2-FAVAR, that allows us to...

This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In the empirical application, we forecast U.S. business cycle turning points with state-level employment data. We find that forecasts...

This paper uses a two-step approach to characterize the evolution of US macroeconomic and financial variables during episodes of very high uncertainty. First, we identify episodes of very high uncertainty using a regime-switching model. Second, we assess the behaviour of macroeconomic and...