We study learning and information acquisition by a Bayesian agent who is misspecified in the sense that his prior belief assigns probability zero to the true state of the world. In our model, at each instant the agent takes an action and observes the corresponding payoff, which is the sum of the...

We show that Bayesian posteriors concentrate on the outcome distributions that approximately minimize the Kullback–Leibler divergence from the empirical distribution, uniformly over sample paths, even when the prior does not have full support. This generalizes Diaconis and Freedman's (1990)...

Models of ambiguity aversion have recently found many applications in dynamic settings. This paper shows that there is a strong interdependence between ambiguity aversion and the preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, as defined by the classic work of Kreps and Porteus...

Though risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution have been the subjects of careful scrutiny when calibrating preferences, the long-run risks literature as well as the broader literature using recursive utility to address asset pricing puzzles have ignored the full...

Though risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution have been the subjects of careful scrutiny when calibrating preferences, the long-run risks literature as well as the broader literature using recursive utility to address asset pricing puzzles have ignored the full...

This paper provides a novel axiomatization of quasi-hyperbolic discounting, which imposes consistency restrictions directly on the intertemporal tradeo s. The experimental design proposed in this paper will be useful for experimental work since it renders the short-run discount factor...