The authors introduce a new methodology for determining the relative importance of fiscal and monetary policy to promote growth and stabilize inflation. They apply this methodology to a panel of data that spans 66 years and 17 countries. Their analysis shows that, on average, monetary policy is...

It is common practice to forecast social, political, and economic outcomes by polling people about their intentions. This approach is direct, but it can be unreliable in settings where it is hard to identify a representative sample, or where subjects have an incentive to conceal their true...

The authors describe a new prediction system based on the concept of statistical relevance, which defines the most useful observations for forming predictions. Their prediction system also encompasses the notion of fit, which enables one to assess the unique reliability of each individual...

The authors apply a Hidden Markov Model to identify regimes of shifting inflation and then employ an attribution technique based on the Mahalanobis distance to identify the economic variables that determine the trajectory of inflation. Their analysis enables policymakers to focus on the most...

We propose three principles for evaluating the practical efficacy of machine learning for stock selection, and we compare the performance of various models and investment goals using this framework. The first principle is investability. To this end, we focus on portfolios formed from highly...