Inconsistency in consumer time preferences has been well-established and used to explain seemingly short-sighted behaviors (e.g., failures of self-control). However, prior research has conflated time-inconsistent preferences (discount rates that vary over time) with present bias (greater...

Although incentives can be a powerful motivator of behavior when they are available, an influential body of research has suggested that rewards can persistently reduce engagement after they end. This research has resulted in widespread skepticism among practitioners and academics alike about...

People must rely on relatively intuitive processes to navigate complex information environments to make decisions. One common mental task is to keep a running total – that is, to form an estimate of the sum of positive-number series (e.g., mentally tracking expenses, calories). Despite the...

Accurately estimating the probability distribution arising from repeated events with known probabilities, such as the number of heads in ten coin flips, represents a simple aptitude necessary for Bayesian updating and optimal decisions in the face of future uncertainty. Across elicitation...

Accurately estimating the prospective probability distribution arising from repeated events with known probabilities, such as the number of heads in ten coin flips, represents a simple aptitude necessary for explicit Bayesian updating and useful in optimal decisions in the face of future...