This paper aims to explain why fiscal multipliers are generally low, even close to zero, in emerging economies (EMEs). Our explanation jointly relies on the behavior of the exchange rate following a fiscal shock and on the proportion of external debt denominated in foreign currency, which is...

This paper aims to develop a parsimonious model to explain and forecast bank loans to non-financial companies during calm periods as well as in situations of financial turmoil. In doing so, we are led to gauge the marginal informational content of simple leading indicators, and to investigate...

As an extension to the literature on the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, this paper studiesthe existence of a systemic risk-taking channel (SRTC) in the Eurozone, through an originalmacroeconomic perspective based on causality measures. Because the SRTC is effective after an“incubation...

In this paper we suggest a simple empirical and model-independent measure of Central Banks' Conservatism, based on the Taylor curve. This new indicator can easily be extended in time and space, whatever the underlying monetary regime of the considered countries. We demonstrate that it evolves in...