Empirical estimates find that the relationship between inflation and the output gap is close to nonexistent—a so-called flat Phillips curve. We show that standard pricing frictions cannot simultaneously produce a flat Phillips curve and meaningful inflation from plausible supply shocks. This...

We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption fluctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy...

This paper experimentally examines whether looking at other people's pricing decisions is a type of heuristic - a decisionmaking rule - that people use even when it is not applicable, as in the case of clearly private value goods. We find evidence that this is indeed the case - an individual's...

We offer a structural interpretation of survey measures of consumer confidence. Our approach is based on a simple forward-looking model of consumption. The model decomposes observed consumption uctuations in changes due to fundamentals, and changes due to temporary errors caused by noisy...