Accurately estimating the probability distribution arising from repeated events with known probabilities, such as the number of heads in ten coin flips, represents a simple aptitude necessary for Bayesian updating and optimal decisions in the face of future uncertainty. Across elicitation...

Although incentives can be a powerful motivator of behavior when they are available, an influential body of research has suggested that rewards can persistently reduce engagement after they end. This research has resulted in widespread skepticism among practitioners and academics alike about...

Accurately estimating the prospective probability distribution arising from repeated events with known probabilities, such as the number of heads in ten coin flips, represents a simple aptitude necessary for explicit Bayesian updating and useful in optimal decisions in the face of future...

Inconsistency in consumer time preferences has been well-established and used to explain seemingly short-sighted behaviors (e.g., failures of self-control). However, prior research has conflated time-inconsistent preferences (discount rates that vary over time) with present bias (greater...