Probabilistic preference models predict that a subject makes different choices with different probabilities in repeatedly experiments with the same stimuli. This paper explains why. First, we prove that a gamble is a statistical ensemble or sample function of a random field with canonical...

A seminal theorem due to Blackwell (1951) shows that every Bayesian decision-maker prefers an informative signal Y to another signal X if and only if Y is statistically sufficient for X. Sufficiency is an unduly strong requirement in most economic problems because it does not incorporate any...

This note presents an algorithm that extends a binary choice model to choice among multiple alternatives. Both neoclassical microeconomic theory and Luce choice model are consistent with the proposed algorithm. The algorithm is compatible with several empirical findings (asymmetric dominance and...

Most decisions in life are gambles. Should I speed up or slow down as I approach the yellow traffic light ahead? Should I invest in the stock market or in treasury bills? Should I undergo surgery or radiation therapy to treat my tumor? From mundane choices rendered with scarcely a moment's...

In many decisions, we are not only uncertain about the predicted outcomes of decision alternatives but also about stakeholder preferences regarding these outcomes. Further information collection may reduce uncertainties, but is costly. We present and apply a framework to identify the most...

We consider the indifference valuation of an uncertain monetary payoff from the perspective of an uncertainty averse decision maker. We study how the indifference valuation depends on the decision maker's attitudes toward uncertainty. We obtain a characterization of comparative uncertainty...

Given a set of vector outcomes and the set of lotteries over it, we define sets of (a) von Neumann-Morgenstern representations of cardinal preferences over the lotteries, (b) mappings that yield the certainty equivalent outcomes corresponding to a lottery, (c) mappings that yield the risk premia...

In this paper, we apply stochastic maximum principles to derive representations for exponential utility indifference prices. We also obtain the related optimal portfolio processes and utility indifference hedging strategies. To illustrate our theoretical results, we present several concrete...

Dana Scott provides a necessary and sufficient condition for a given probability capacity can be decomposed into a unique additive probability and a unique strictly increasing distortion function. Given this result, we characterize a family of preferences defined over the lottery acts (the...

Cerreia-Vioglio, Ghirardato, Maccheroni, Marinacci and Siniscalchi (Economic Theory, 48:341-375, 2011) have recently proposed a very general axiomatisation of preferences in the presence of ambiguity, viz. Monotonic Bernoullian Archimedean (MBA) preference orderings. This paper investigates the...