In this paper we present backcasts and nowcasts for quarter on quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Turkish economy. GDP growth is one of the most important economic indicators since GDP figures provide comprehensive information regarding the economic activity. GDP data are published...

Filters used to estimate unobserved components in time series are often designed on a priori grounds, so as to capture the frequencies associated with the component. A limitation of these filters is that they may yield spurious results. The danger can be avoided if the so called ARIMA model...

This paper examines the performance of prediction intervals based on bootstrap for threshold autoregressive models. We consider four bootstrap methods to account for the variability of estimates, correct the small-sample bias of autoregressive coefficients and allow for heterogeneous errors....

This paper presents a rigurous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every...

This paper first shows that survey-based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in U.S. quarterly inflation out-of-sample prediction and that the term structure of survey-based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes...

In this empirical work, cognisance has been given to providing a review of literature on the seasonal Box- Jenkins modelling, particularly with reference to a univariate model. Seasonal pattern of Headline Consumer Price Index (HCPI) has been produced for Sierra Leone and with EVIEWS making use...

Reducing CO2 emissions is imperative to stay within the 2oC global warming ‘safe limit’ of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. However to ensure social and political stability, these reductions must be aligned with fuel security and economic growth. Here an advanced multifactorial...

Prediction is very important in business planning. The ability to accurately predict the future is fundamental to many decision activities in sales, marketing, production, inventory control, personnel, and many other functional areas of business. Time series modeling approach is one of the major...

This paper examines the relevance of incorporating seasonality in agricultural supply models. Former studies have eliminated the problem of seasonality by using seasonally adjusted data. Recent developments in cointegration techniques allow the comprehensive modelling of error-correcting...

Nowadays, volatility of crude oil price is one of the important developments which are followed by experts with care. Recently increasing of crude oil price is very important for Turkey which 40% of energy consumption consists of oil and 90% of this amount is imported. The aim of the study is...