In recent monetary history, central banks around the world have started to introduce unconventional monetary policy measures, such as extending or restructuring the asset side of their balance sheet. The origin of these monetary policy tools goes back to an intervention by the U.S. Federal...

Modelling the growth rate of economic time series with a Markov switching process in their mean and/or their variance allows to take account of two facts that are often encountered in such series, namely that the periods in which each mean is prevailing differ in their duration and that the...

In recent monetary history, central banks around the world have started to introduce unconventional monetary policy measures, such as extending or restructuring the asset side of their balance sheet. The origin of these monetary policy tools goes back to an intervention by the U.S. Federal...

In this paper, we propose new tests for threshold cointegration in the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model. The indicators in the threshold model are based on either a nonstationary or stationary threshold variable. The cointegrating vector in this paper is not pre-specied. We adopt a...

This paper weakens the size and moment conditions needed for typical block bootstrap methods (i.e. the moving blocks, circular blocks, and stationary bootstraps) to be valid for the sample mean of Near-Epoch-Dependent functions of mixing processes; they are consistent under the weakest...

We analyze cross-household inflation dispersion in Europe using "fictitious" monthly inflation rates for several household categories (grouped according to income levels, household size, socio-economic status, age) for the period from 1997 to 2008. Our analysis is carried out on a panel of 23 up...

This article introduces and investigates the properties of a new bootstrap method for time-series data, the kernel block bootstrap. The bootstrap method, although akin to, offers an improvement over the tapered block bootstrap of Paparoditis and Politis (2001), admitting kernels with unbounded...

This paper conducts a time series econometric analysis in order to empirically evaluate the role of financialisation in the slowdown of labour productivity in Portugal during the period from 1980 to 2017. During that time, the Portuguese economy faced a financialisation phenomenon due to the...

Imposing the natural rate hypothesis (NRH) can dramatically alter the determinacy bounds on monetary policy by closing the output gap in the long run. I show that the hypothesis eliminates any role for the output gap in determinacy and renders the conditions for determinacy identical for all...

This paper first shows that survey-based expectations (SBE) outperform standard time series models in U.S. quarterly inflation out-of-sample prediction and that the term structure of survey-based inflation forecasts has predictive power over the path of future inflation changes. It then proposes...